Cut of word is “easier.” Because of course. Not enough kids are dying, gotta get those numbers up!
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OK, before I post this, let me say that I am not at all sure this is something to particularly fret over yet.
Genotype B3, which has caused significant outbreaks in other regions, appears to be spreading locally within Italy. Although vaccination coverage in Lombardy, the region encompassing Milan, is notably high (96.06% for the first dose and 93.63% for the second, according to the study), pockets of susceptible individuals remain, especially among young adults who were not immunized in childhood. Scientists are trying to understand how a single genotype could lead to persistent transmission, and whether this indicates a more profound vulnerability in public health defenses.
At those immunization rates, this bug should not be able to spread like this. It is still (largely) limited to unvaxxed individuals, but it should be more contained. I have to wonder if there is an increased ability to survive in the air or on surfaces or some such adaptation that allows it to spread more effectively. Not sure what it means, exactly, but I do not like it.
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Eep!
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Your regularly scheduled reminder that 97% (effectiveness of the MMR II currently utilized) is not 100%. The hard truth is that 2-3% of those who are fully vaccinated (and 7-8% of those who only got one dose) are still vulnerable to measles. It is reasonable (but no good data) to think that these folks should have a less severe infection, but they are still ill, and can still spread it. Despite what you will hear from antivaxxers, and I promise they will try to make hay from this story, this is not proof that the vaccine does not work. I am expecting to hear that story any moment, though.
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One day later, second case reported:
Now with exposure sites crossing the northwest quadrant of the U.P. With two confirmed cases. With our 8 person per square mile population density.
I hope the MAGA folks up here take some time to consider this. Unfortunately, the MAGA-woo parents will be hoping to track down someone with a measles case so they can throw an infection party for their kids.
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You know it’s bad if this administration is warning.
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Airport spread will be how this establishes in new vulnerable populations, then good, old-fashioned vax deniers will take it from there.
Speaking of vax deniers…
At this point I have to think that anyone who still has not gotten vaccinated either cannot or is unreachable.
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So this was in my inbox this morning:
Dear Team Members,
Today, the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) confirmed a second case of measles in the greater Charlottesville area since May 23. This new patient – who had a known exposure with the previously diagnosed measles patient – was treated, tested, and released yesterday by the University Medical Center Emergency Department (ED). This afternoon, the patient revisited the ED and is now under further evaluation.
So, the original case was not sufficiently contained and there was spread. The question will be whether it got into one of the unvaccinated populations in the area (of which there are several) or not. The fact that there was spread causes me concern that it has already done so. No details available at present on demographics or any such things, but we shall see. sigh…
ETA:
This was released last night. This morning, they reported a third, under 4, also from exposure to the original case. Here we go…
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Possible measles case in an infant (“person not yet eligible for the vaccine”). Lee County in south-central Alabama is home to Auburn University, abuts the Georgia state line.
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I think we’ve had a couple of cases reported here in the ATL metro… I would not be surprised if it came from here.
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Absolutely predictable. Absolutely wrong, but they will not see it. Fuck…
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As the largest TX outbreak is seeing to run out of fuel, others are getting started.
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What gets me is that even if the wall of herd immunity barely saves us this go-round, I can easily see where the anti-vax crowd will say something like “see? we told you it wasn’t going to be that bad!” and “it’s natural / nature is healing / we beat it by [taking this supplement / this herb / using this device / our deep faith / our bodies’ own natural immunity].”
I should probably set my countdown timer for this inevitable narrative, coming to Fox in 5, 4, 3, 2…
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Well, it’s true. Everybody who survives is immune to the virus in future. Of course, this doesn’t help the ones who die, nor does it account for the increased all-causes M&M following recovery from measles, or the ones who will develop SSPE years later. The fact that none of these things are a problem if you just get the vaccine seems to not register with these guys at all. And then there are the other ones, like polio (tough to find iron lungs these days) and rubella (not bad for the adults, but congenital rubella syndrome was truly horrible) that are just waiting in the wings. This is not a great time to be an infectious disease expert. Your skills re desperately needed, but utterly ignored.
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Good news—not measles per an update from the state health department. Dodged it, this time.
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