Wanderthread Redux

Trump’s odds of winning are… not great, with Biden something like 8 points ahead in swing states, and close in Texas. When’s the last time an incumbent recovered when they were so far behind so close to the election? Maybe Truman, but that involved 2x 3rd-party campaigns and shoddy polling.

Trump’s odds of losing are rather higher.

Trump’s odds of cheating are 100%.

Therefore, Trump’s odds of losing and cheating are greater than his odds of winning.

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Last post on this, I promise, but I’ve just watched the episode in question and I think John Oliver’s own words (from somewhere around 25 minutes in to the episode) sum it up pretty perfectly:

He then goes on to detail the hypocrisy of the US government calling attention to this at the same time as Trump telling Xi to build the camps because “Trump thought [this] was exactly the right thing to do” (WSJ), and says:

He’s not arguing for anything like the State Department line and, frankly, I have to question the motives of anyone who would suggest otherwise.

ETA: not you personally, but I don’t think that Twitter post was made in good faith.

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Oliver is a credible international threat to rich assholes everywhere. The responses are going to be exactly the team-sports whataboutist variety.

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Thread.

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And it ain’t just Americans. This one is from Canada:

Outside of the White Western bubble, the SEALS “reputation on the world stage” is that of trigger-happy war criminal assassins.

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“Housing providers”.

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