Climate change and climate justice

It makes people think the climate might be, you know, changing. Can’t have that!

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A new article yesterday reports on attempts to kill the AMOC in simulations using 34 different climate models. The attempts failed, which the authors take as evidence that a complete failure of the AMOC is unlikely. This doesn’t rule out bad consequences, however.

Baker, J.A., Bell, M.J., Jackson, L.C. et al.
Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes.
Nature 638, 987–994 (2025)

I would be more comfortable with the results (and this just me applying a heuristic) if the authors had identified points where the AMOC breaks down in simulation. There’s a classic trap you can fall into when looking for a simulated solution to something: when your answer just stops changing as you follow what looks like a path to a solution, you incorrectly accept the stalled result as the solution. If there was any agreement on a total collapse scenario then I would find the results more compelling.

The Guardian has an overview (which we hope wasn’t written by OpenAI).

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