Worrisome. I’d guess all those Trompkins positioned to deny the election results are the “big surprise” he gleefully told some rally about a few days ago.
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That’s basically what everyone is assuming.
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Haven’t read this yet, so can’t tell if it’ll help, but 
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Harris and Trump now tied in Pennsylvania.
Of course, polls are all weighted these days in ways we don’t know until the full poll is released. If ever. Because the data is so bad over the last several elections.
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Yes indeed. The data is bad because the samples are hugely skewed (can they reach you on a cell phone via an unknown out-of-state number which becomes a robo-call? nor me either). Then the pollsters, those not being paid for a specific result, attempt to fix their results by scaling for their skewed sample using quite arcane unpublished methods (“well we got two surveys completed by under 30 Hispanic males, so lets weight those two by uh… oh… [consults crosstabs from an equally faulty 2022 survey] 73.1”). Then when the results comes out outside their spuriously calculated margin of error, they re-re-adjust toward a 50:50 result so as join the other polling agencies in a cover-yer-ass process known as “herding”. Then the aggregators (like “538”) include that result with some proprietary weighting scheme of their own. So to summarize my overlong blathers: national opinion polling has never been so adrift from reality.
Oh, and then all the media reports “They’re even more neck-and-neck!!” and gives us all stress headaches -sigh-
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The only thing I’m confident about when it comes to election forecasting is that SOMEONE is going to be right on the money due to sheer dumb luck. Then whoever it ends up being will crow endlessly with “told you so”s and get guest spots on political punditry shows for future election cycles even if their subsequent predictions turn out to be wildly inaccurate.
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Yep. We get loud and wide media declaration of the “amazing accuracy” of national polling because of the industry wide Jeane Dixon effect (famous ‘psychic’ who made lots of predicitions and after-the-fact only pointed to those which happened to sorta come true) and the merry-go-round continues
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It reminds me of the way so many cons work:
Send a short-term prediction to 1,000 people, half saying A and half saying B. Whichever one becomes true, send a new short-term prediction to those 500 people, half saying C and half saying D. Continue on until there are only 7 or 8 people left, but by now you’ve been right 100% of the time (as far as they know). Now, ask for money for your next prediction.
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That won’t stop the experts from explaining endlessly why their predictions were wrong.
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Also, plate of shrimps.
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Via:
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The second she was about to sit down in front of that lighted mirror, I knew VP Harris was going to be on the other side…
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video
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i’ve an increasing ‘unscientific’ feeling that it’ll come down to the dominant womens’ vote which will (once again) pull this weary nation out of the fire (most particularly in the swing states). Will the political powers-that-be learn anything from such a result? (oh, i dunno, like don’t f@# with reproductive freedoms) …nnnnah. -sigh-
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Looks like Ford has at least a few Nazi-punches left in him.
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For some reason my mind went to Henry…
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