Elections 2023-2024

Obligatory Disclaimer: The following is not financial advice. I’m completely incompetent when it comes to anything to do with the financial markets and not even capricious fools should listen to, or act on, anything I say. Past performance is not indicative of future outcomes, at all, ever.

So I run a computer that watches markets, bonds, equities, metals, and energy at the moment. What it does is surprising simple, but terribly complicated. It watches prices in the market and tries to make a bit of money by balancing what it can see given the fog of the future. It’s not particularly aggressive, I’ve taught it to stare first at the uncertainty, and only then try to pick an action.

It noped out of everything last night. Cashed out. Took a loss and ran away.

I commented on Cory’s piece last week about conspiricies and manipulation in social media, pointing out that the really effective strategies aren’t the ones that make you take a particular action. The real power comes in strategies that make the future seem so scary and uncertain that you make a decision that’s a net loss, just to make the possibility of scary outcomes go away.

There’s a fair bit of modern math, most of it missing in what economists’ use, to show that this is a perfectly rational decision making process. Humans make this computation fairly well in a lot of circumstances, making it a very effective target for bad actors trying to manipulate people.

Without any input from news, sentiments, indictors… just looking at the prices of goods, such as oil or copper, exchanged in the market, my computer has discovered the :us: election and decided that it’s scary. :thinking:

I’m looking for bugs, right now. This hasn’t happened before.

So if you are feeling anxious this election season, take :heart:. The situation has scared my computer, which is a fairly unfeeling, steely-eyed and cold-blooded beast on the best of days.

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