The meeting with Joe Trippi just finished. He spoke and took questions with about 30 of us for an hour, and it was a firehose of coherent insights into the election. I’m still digesting all that, but I’ll post a few (and that’s already a lot, I see) insights that stood out for me. I’ll link to his new Twitter-style social network focused on building democracy, Sez Us, here at the top.
Nobody is named, Chatam House rules apply. I like my invitation to these. Please, don’t shoot the messenger (I know it’s tempting), I’m trying not to editorialize.
A participant from DC noted that the city feels PTSD, and quiet, and that the assumption that there will be a middle class of neutral government administrators feels like a strong (i.e. wishful) assumption to make right now.
Trump got the same vote in 2020 and 2024; this year, basically, 7m to 8m people simply did not vote. Black men, younger men, Latinos generally, shifted towards Trump. Why? There is some part of it which is not wanting a woman president, but that wasn’t identified as the dominant reason.
The pro-democracy vs authoritarian networks were a big theme in the analysis. The authoritarians own their propaganda channels (Fox, Sinclair, X, etc), and these are vastly more powerful than the pro-democracy networks. Democrats just don’t understand how powerful the right-wing propaganda engine is. Conventional journalism, underfunded or not, has no chance. The [Dd]emocratic side has to rent time on these networks. This means the authoritarians own the local reporters who, in the end, are more trusted than advertising or interviewees.
The authoritarian messaging triggers “fight or flight”, which the customary mode of pro-democracy messaging counters with “reasoned discussion” and loses. “Build the wall” is simple, engaging and visceral; a discussion that reasons about how immigrants are important to the economy, not so much. That’s fundamentally hard to counter. See the new book “Nexus” by Yuval Hariri, which was repeatedly emphasized as a very important analysis of the problem.
Watching UFC? WWE? You’re probably a T—p voter, likely younger and male, and right along side the event was messaging about how horrible the pro-democracy candidate was. Messaging exploited the loss of place that younger men are feeling, as well as into other, less economically integrated groups who have the gut feeling that democracy is just something that pesters them on the door once every four years.
Democratic Party “ground game” is a “dark ages” political operation. People respond poorly to strangers on the door, phone calls, and 5 emails a day for fund raising. Apparently the Democratic party campaign, particularly the consultants, are an insular group and resistant to change.
There was very little discussion about the Democratic Party candidate’s suitability. Whomever wins the primary in 2028, which will be the key vote, will be brutally roasted in the right wing networks before the next day is over. The key will be how to counter well-financed, well-integrated communication networks that the authoritarians own. The authoritarian message sticks, even if it is outrageous. Example: Obama’s birth country, which was authoritatively addressed only years after he was elected, and his birth certificate was still rejected by the authoritarians as a forgery.
Democrats consistently failed to address the obvious, outrage-generating, dis-info events. There was a Democratic assumption that people largely would discount this dis-info as unbelievable. Apparently the Lincoln Project screamed at them to address this, but the Democrats were too afraid of offending some of the base to risk a message that some group would take offense to; Dem organizers felt it was better to say nothing. This was the wrong response.
The best case right now may be for the Rep party to win the House. That way, when T—p has to walk back a promise, the administration doesn’t have Dem obstruction as an excuse. Otherwise, T—p the King will spend at least 2 years simply complaining that his agenda has been blocked.
This is not the end of the American experiment. That happened a while ago. There are lots of countries that have the veneer of democracy, and with the removal of mail-in and drop-box ballots, “tightening voting” etc. the will join them. This makes it fundamentally hard to remove the authoritarians by election. This has been the authoritarian plan for over 40 years, and it has always been a waiting game. Each election is democracy’s to lose.
Biden said that his presidency was a chance to prove democracy works, but in the end he spent 4 years proving that it doesn’t.
DogeCoin is the poor-man’s bitcoin. BTC and ETH are out of reach for most. Elon Musk was promised the position of “Director Of Government Efficiency”. The messaging was, not so subtly, “buy DogeCoin and vote Republican, and it will make you rich”.
Finally, there is a new Twitter-style social network Sez Us, with algorithms that promote building trust and conversions we need to preserve democracy. Supporters of democracy are encouraged to post and cross-post. If you have money to invest, they’d love to talk to you.