Informal US Presidential Election Vote Audit

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OP updated. Thank you!

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Colorado

2024 - 3,189,512
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/122598/web.345435/#/detail/10

2020 - 3,256,980
Difference: minus 67,468

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Alabama:

2024:
2,257,052

2020:
2,323,282

Difference:
66,224 less people voted in 2024

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Thanks, Mindy! Added to OP.

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Oklahoma

2024 Turnout - 1,566,173
2020 Turnout - 1,560,699

According to the Oklahoma Election Board’s page, voter turnout in 2024 was 64.42%
According to Wikipedia, voter turnout in 2020 was 54.8%

Up 5,474 votes from 2020

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Thanks, Myx! Added to OP.

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Arkansas

2024 Turnout - 1,187,999
2020 Turnout - 1,219,069
Difference: Down 31,070 from 2020

According to the Arkansas Election’s page, voter turnout for 2024 was 64.98%.
According to Wikipedia, voter turnout for 2020 was 66.9%.

Top 5 populous County results difference:
Pulaski County 2024 total - 153,312 (Dem win)
Pulaski County 2020 total - 169,956 (Dem win)
Difference: Down 16,644

Benton County 2024 total - 128,400 (Rep win)
Benton County 2020 total - 119,912 (Rep win)
Difference: Up 8,488

Washington County 2024 total - 97,158 (Rep win)
Washington County 2020 total - 94,266 (Rep win)
Difference: Up 2,892

Faulkner County 2024 total - 54,409 (Rep win)
Faulkner County 2020 total - 54,428 (Rep win)
Difference: Down 19

Saline County 2024 total - 57,592 (Rep win)
Saline County 2020 total - 56,959 (Rep win)
Difference: Up 633

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Thank you! Added to the OP.

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This article has some interesting interactive graphics that show how individual counties had their votes shift between 2016 and 2024:

One interesting observation is that for suburban counties in particular, the blue ones tended to shift more red from 2020 to 2024, while the red ones tended to shift more blue from 2020 to 2024. But the overall trends definitely favored Trump, unfortunately.

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Duke, this is the most notable difference between us and the MAGAts. For the most part, facts will actually influence our take on the subject. MAGAts will reject any and all facts in favor of the a priori conclusion. IMHO, our way is much, much more likely to lead to truth, or at least less likely to lead to RFK jr level stupid.

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But it takes work, and so the lie will circle the earth 20 times while the truth is still data being collated.

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Connecticut
2024 = 1,763,478 votes
2020 = 1,824,280 votes
Difference = minus 60,802

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California
2024 = 15,672,609
2020 = 17,500,881
Difference = minus 1,828,272

There are about 200,000 ballots still to count and another 110,000 ballots that need healing. Still, that’s 1.5M votes less from 2020. Moreover, the presidential votes are about 300,000 less than total ballots, so there were a lot of voters who didn’t vote for anyone on the presidential ticket.

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This project leaves me profoundly sad. I would rather believe that the country is not what it clearly is, and that a bunch of gazillionaires bought the election. And that sort of is kinda true. But they did so by playing on the prejudice and ignorance that already exists, not by outsmarting it. Damn, it’s gonna be so damned hard to dig out of this.

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There have been two generations’ duration of concerted effort by the Right to defund and deprioritize secular public education.

That’s what lands you a nationful of ignorami.

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This is at the state level… but…

:thinking:

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Given the tens of thousands of valid ballots that were tossed by courts in Pennsylvania, MN GOP can GFT.,

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Here’s one of the (better, i think) DailyKos regular posters, who is asserting that “trump lost the election” not if one posits that musk diddled the scanners etc, but rather due to diverse voter suppression:

if all legal voters were allowed to vote, if all legal ballots were counted, Trump would have lost the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia . Vice-President Kamala Harris would have won the Presidency with 286 electoral votes.

Stay with me and I’ll give you the means, methods and, most important, the key calculations.

But if you’re expecting a sexy story about Elon Musk messing with vote-counting software from outer space, sorry, you won’t get that here.

As in Bush v. Gore in 2000 and in too many other miscarriages of Democracy, this election was determined by good old “vote suppression,” the polite term we use for shafting people of color out of their ballot. We used to call it Jim Crow.

Here are key numbers:

4,776,706 voters were wrongly purged from voter rolls according to US Elections Assistance Commission data.
— By August of 2024, for the first time since 1946, self-proclaimed “vigilante” voter-fraud hunters challenged the rights of 317,886 voters. The NAACP of Georgia estimates that by Election Day, the challenges exceeded 200,000 in Georgia alone.
— No fewer than 2,121,000 mail -in ballots were disqualified for minor clerical errors (e.g. postage due).
At least 585,000 ballots cast in-precinct were also disqualified.
1,216,000 “provisional” ballots were rejected, not counted.
3.24 million new registrations were rejected or not entered on the rolls in time to vote.

obviously this can’t be used to reverse the current apocalypse, but can we please have some election lawyers considering this sort of data before the next (if we survive that long) presidential election?

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There’s almost certainly some truth to that, and voter suppression is a real problem, but to me the strongest indication against the idea that widespread voter suppression was a huge issue in the swing states this year is the fact that the states with the biggest percentage of red shift between 2020 and 2024 were not the swing states, but included the solidly blue states like California and New York. And I’m not hearing accusations of widespread voter suppression in CA and NY.

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