Informal US Presidential Election Vote Audit

Politics
1

I’ve been tracking the disparity of vote numbers in the 2024 US Presidential election vs 2020 numbers. The overall vote appears to be ~7M votes short of the 2020 election, which seems odd when there was reported record new voter registration and turnout among women & young people. To take the analysis to the next level, I think it would be useful to analyze the unofficial vote returns by state and county to pinpoint where the votes are missing. I’m looking for a pattern that might indicate some kind of tampering with the vote reporting, primarily at the county level, since that is where the most distortion can be created with the least oversight and fewest participants.

Here is the method I propose (I’m open to suggestions!):
Start with battleground states, which is where the greatest electoral college change can be created for the least distortion.
Get vote totals directly from the state elections website.
Compare with the county results from 2020 on Wikipedia. Drill down from this page: 2020 United States presidential election - Wikipedia
For states with fewer votes than 2020, look at the 5 most populous counties in the state and compare each county’s 2024 vote tally to 2020, again drilling down from the main Wikipedia page above.
Sign up for a state below if you want to help out. I don’t have the bandwidth to do this alone. I will put a link to the state elections website for each state.

Any questions?

Battleground States:

Arizona - @DukeTrout
COMPLETE
Difference: minus 44,090
https://results.arizona.vote/default.html

Georgia - @mindysan33
COMPLETE
250,077 more votes in 2024
https://sos.ga.gov/elections-division-georgia-secretary-states-office

Michigan - @DukeTrout
COMPLETE - 109,444 more votes than 2020

Nevada - @PsiPhiGrrrl

80,074 more in 2024
COMPLETE
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections

North Carolina - @DukeTrout
COMPLETE - Difference: plus 127,738
https://www.ncsbe.gov/

Pennsylvania @PsiPhiGrrrl
COMPLETE - increase of 49,468 over 2024

Wisconsin - @DukeTrout
COMPLETE
Difference: plus 116,432 in 2024
https://myvote.wi.gov/en-us/

Rest of states:

Alabama - @mindysan33
COMPLETE
Minus 67,224 votes
https://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001225

Alaska

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-results/

Arkansas - @Myx
COMPLETE

Difference: Down 31,070 from 2020

https://www.sos.arkansas.gov/elections/research/election-results

California - @DukeTrout
COMPLETE
Difference = minus 1,828,272
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/

Colorado - @DukeTrout
COMPLETE
Difference: minus 67,468

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/122598/web.345435/#/summary

Connecticut -@DukeTrout
COMPLETE

Difference = minus 50,802

Delaware
https://elections.delaware.gov/index.shtml

DC
https://dcboe.org/

Florida
https://dos.fl.gov/elections/

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois
https://www.elections.il.gov/

Indiana
https://indianavoters.in.gov/

Iowa
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/index.html

Kansas

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/elections.html

Kentucky
https://elect.ky.gov/Pages/default.aspx

Louisiana
https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/Pages/default.aspx

Maine
https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/index.html

Maryland

Massachusetts
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/elections-and-voting.htm

Minnesota

Mississippi
https://www.sos.ms.gov/elections-voting

Missouri - @MrShiv
COMPLETE
Difference: 46,911 fewer votes in 2024
https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/

Montana

Nebraska

New Hampshire
https://www.sos.nh.gov/elections/voters

New Jersey

New Mexico
https://www.sos.nm.gov/voting-and-elections/voter-information-portal-nmvote-org/

New York
https://elections.ny.gov/

North Dakota
https://vip.sos.nd.gov/PortalList.aspx

Ohio
https://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/voters/

Oklahoma - @Myx
COMPLETE

Up 5,474 votes from 2020

Oregon - @DukeTrout
Down 229,940

Puerto Rico
https://ww2.ceepur.org/

Rhode Island
https://vote.sos.ri.gov/

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee
https://sos.tn.gov/elections

Texas
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/index.shtml

Utah

Vermont @DaakSyde
COMPLETE
+1,917 votes in 2024
https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/

Virginia

Washington
https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections

West Virginia
https://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/candidate-search/

Wyoming
https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/Default.aspx

8 Likes
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Don’t forget to count 3rd Party votes! Some states include total votes and others require us to do math.

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Michigan:
2024 - 5,648,746 votes
2020 - 5,539,302 votes
Difference - plus 109,444

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I’ll look for details from Pennsylvania. :fist:t5: Please keep in mind, the news has already reported ballot count issues. :face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

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Got it! When I looked briefly at the California results page, they had detailed info about uncounted ballots and ballots that needed repair, so it might be good to look for those numbers if PA provides them.

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Oregon
2024 - 2,144,381
2020 - 2,374,321
Difference: minus 229,940 (this might be due to some remaining votes that need to be counted)

71% voter turnout

Results of 5 biggest counties:
Multnomah 403,956. Last 463,659 difference -59,703
Washington 259,158. Last 320,326 difference
Clackamas 234,134. Last 257,679 difference
Lane 202,605. Last 222,253 difference
Marion 141,195. Last 165,534 difference

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Pennsylvania
2024 6,986,444
2020 6,936,976
An increase of 49,468 votes.
76% voter turnout

There’s a supplemental report about mailed votes, with 1,959,702 total mailed ballots, 0.49% uncounted (9603) as of 2024-11-14. That is updated daily. However, I haven’t yet found reports about rejected ballots (if they are currently in the process of being cured).

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North Carolina
2024 - 5,652,542
2020 - 5,524,804
Difference: plus 127,738

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Okay… don’t know if I’m doing this correctly… but… here we got for GA (this includes the 3rd parties that got votes):

2024: 5,250,037

2020: 4,999,960

Difference: 250,077 more in 2024…

According to the wikipedia page, at least 3 counties flipped to the GOP…

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Thank you! And @mindysan33 , too!!

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Arizona
2024 3,343,236
2020 3,387,326
Difference: minus 44,090

That difference may just be votes that haven’t been tallied, yet. Arizona reports 3,383,032 ballots cast.

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12

About to go out for groceries, but I’ll check in after and see if there are other states that need looking at…

Oh! It might be a good idea to go back to the OP as we post numbers for each state and strike out the ones already done (or indicate if they need a further look)… That way we ensure work doesn’t get duplicated unnecessarily…

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Nevada
2024 1,485,450
2020 1,405,376

Difference: 80,074 more in 2024. The state site reports turnout of 72.72%.

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Missouri
2024: 2,979,051 (unofficial until next Tuesday)
2020: 3,025,962
Difference: 46,911 fewer votes in 2024

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Thank you, and @PsiPhiGrrrl and @MrShiv!

I’m marking each state when someone reports on it and labeling it “COMPLETE.”

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WISCONSIN (note, Wisconsin does not report statewide unofficial results. These numbers for 2024 are from the AP)
2024 - 3,414,473
2020 - 3,298,041
Difference: plus 116,432

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17

I doubt this will help your efforts much, since Missouri wasn’t a swing state, but I get the full MO voters file every year or two for my research. The file lists all registered voters and which of the 20 most recent elections they voted in. (These files are the source for those annoying “voter report cards” you might get before an election.)

If your audit is still happening when I get the updated voter file, I’d be glad to run a complete county-level analysis for Missouri.

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Cool! That’s a treasure trove of data!

I still think the rest of the analysis is worth completing, but based on what I’m seeing from the battleground states’ data, I can reject the hypothesis that there is election meddling causing a decrease in votes. For the Presidential election, those are the states to manipulate, and they actually had higher vote counts than in 2020 except for Arizona (and that may just be due to currently uncounted votes).

So one take-away may be that voters in non-battleground states are less motivated than battleground state voters since they might perceive their vote doesn’t affect the presidential election.

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Agreed. It’s also notable that the battleground states are actually generally where Harris lost the least amount of vote share relative to what Biden got in 2020. The Pod Save America guys were pointing out that in swing states she did about 1.5% worse than Biden, but in the rest of the country she did about 3% worse, on average. And some of the states that had the biggest percentage shift were places like New York where it’s unlikely that large-scale manipulation on the part of the GOP would go unnoticed or unchallenged, and cheating would be relatively pointless because the state would go to Harris regardless.

But of course it’s still always a good idea to check.

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Vermont
+1,917 votes in 2024

Wikipedia totals for 2020: 367,428

State totals for 2020 total: 370,968 (73.27% turnout)

  • Biden: 242,820
  • Trump: 112,704
  • Other: 15,444

State totals for 2024 presidential: 372,885

  • Harris/Walz: 235,791
  • Trump/Vance: 119,395
  • Other: 17,699

Difference between Wikipedia and State seems to be how they count ‘Other’ - where state counts ‘blank’ and ‘spoiled’, but Wikipedia only counts write-ins.

That lines up with Harris getting 3% less than Biden that you’re seeing in other states.

7 Likes