It’s not as Pollyanna-esque as the one-box suggests.
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If some states are too close to call over the next few days, focusing on Trump’s chances since this is really a referendum on his sente… term.
Fivethirtyeight gives Trump a 15% chance in Pennsylvania, and 10% overall.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Trump’s chances rise to 63%.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, his odds fall to 1%.
I guess if it stays too close to call, his odds might be about 32%. Just averaging their estimates for if each candidate wins.
The earliest results will come from Georgia, but I’m not sure if mail-in votes will take longer there. Slightly later for North Carolina.
If Georgia is too close to call, maybe 12%. If North Carolina is, maybe 14%.
I kinda expect Florida to take forever.
If Florida is too close to call, maybe 16%. If Ohio is, maybe 10%.
If Texas is too close to call, maybe 9%. Arizona 15%. Iowa 9%. Maine’s 2nd District 11%.
P.S. Estimates based on this page here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews
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Is everyone ready for tomorrow night’s D&D?
That’s Doomscrolling and Drinking in this instance
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The way the model works, if Trump wins PA, it means that he likely wins a bunch of other states that were considered “in play”: Georgia, for instance. Conversely, if Biden wins Texas, Iowa and Ohio also lean towards Biden.
as discussed on one of their recent podcasts.
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I checked on the status of my vote today to be sure, and it was accepted. Also, I did get a sticker with my mail-in ballot.
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This is great and I’m not sure it belongs in “the dumbest thing I’ve ever read”. 
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You are absolutely correct, and I was definitely not at all confused about which topic I was replying to…
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If you’re having anxiety about the election already don’t watch this. It’s about what could happen if after the election a candidate doesn’t give a concession speech, and things proceed ultimately to the House of Representatives to determine the outcome. Chilling. In the sense of shivers down your spine, not in the sense of relaxing and having a good time.
I’m kind of thinking about turning off the cable modem and my phone as soon as my work shift is done. That might actually make me more anxious though.
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Going to try not to obsess over things too much. Everyone in the house has voted, I’ve made my arguments with others, not much to do but see how the final numbers turn out. Which will take more than just today, just like it always does, no matter what Trump’s been trying to say about how nothing past the end of the election day should matter. (and that’s not even counting the tantrum he’s likely to throw if it looks like things are going badly for him)
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Biden sucks.
Voted Biden.
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As I pointed out a while back at the other place: Biden the cure. Biden isn’t even first aid. Biden is shooting the bear that is actively mauling you so you have a chance to get around to doing first aid.
You don’t have to like him, but the bear is going to kill you if he gets to keep chewing.
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A sad parody:
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It should not? They have an emergency order about starting the count early for mail-ins, so the ones that are already in, they started the count 2 weeks ago, I think? So the Secretary of States office thinks they’ll know by Wednesday… we’ll see if that’s the case, of course, but they have already started the count on mail ins, so that’ll help speed things up.
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Quite literally I feel sick.
And that’s not the COVID-19 talking.
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I feel like Bobby Newton as Long John Silver - “Them that die will be the lucky ones!”
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I am a little bothered my son’s ballot isn’t marked online as received and counted. His and my late husband’s ballots were mailed October 6 from British Columbia. My husband was registered in a smaller county whose elections dept. doesn’t allow voters to track their ballots online.
My kid used the Seattle address so i doubt his vote would matter much anyway.
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I’m nervous enough already. I don’t need a helicopter shaking the neighborhood and making me seasick.
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