…the FCC’s Equal Time rule…
My first thought was, “how quaint!” 
Then, “is that a thing again? Didn’t it go away in the '80s?”
(I was thinking of the Fairness Doctrine)
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It’d help if people used some other term, – such as impending motion, – for expected movement, which polls and polling aggregates haven’t yet caught up with.
Anyway, the polls should [shouldn’t] be this close to each other. If they had perfect methods and perfect weighting, 10% [of the results] should be outside the error range, and since they don’t have such things, a lot more should.
Edited for type and clarity.
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I’m glad you didn’t bother to find that gif!
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ETA
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I wasn’t even going to look!
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I’m not sure I agree. If Harris is actually up by double-digits, then it would be relieving a lot of anxiety right now. Accurate polls would be much, much better than what we have. And since what we have is shit, it should be public knowledge that it’s shit instead of pretending that it’s accurate. It would also create urgency around improving polling methods to make them more accurate instead of using old methods that don’t work anymore. Right now, pollsters have no motivation to radically change their approach because they are getting away with pretending that the status quo is ok. It’s not.
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It also never made sense that people who are in the country illegally would WANT to risk arrest and deportation to cast a single vote even if they could find a way to do so. Heck, it’s often an uphill battle to get American citizens to make the effort to vote.
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It’s like how spiders like to climb into your mouth when you’re sleeping. They don’t actually have their own lives to worry about, they simply exist to torment the Good People™ of the world. 
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When their polls and reality turn out to be worlds apart, won’t that help as a bludgeon to help convince them?
Also, as much I hate the stress and anxiety of a supposedly close race, my hope is that worry will motivate many people who might not have bothered, to vote.
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Thanks for that vid.
Up until about 9 minutes in, I thought he was just a smug twat.
(just something about all the “not worried” shit).
Glad to be proved completely wrong.
The last four or five minutes were golden.
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In 2016 at this time, the day before the election, I had a bad feeling. I didn’t know why, but I had a bad feeling, and that feeling got worse as the day went on, and got even worse the next day. That evening, as results started to come in, my gut feeling proved true.
Today, I have a gut feeling that Harris is going to win, and that it’s not even going to be close. Again, I don’t know why I have this feeling, but I do. I do not feel like I did in 2016.
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I hope you are right. I’m a whole lot more anxious than 2016 or 2020
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But the argument Musk’s lawyers advanced in court Monday appeared to run counter to earlier statements by Musk himself and posts made by his PAC on his social media platform, X.
On Oct. 19, for example, one post said: “BREAKING: Elon Musk announces that he will be randomly awarding $1 MILLION every day from now until Election Day to registered Pennsylvania voters who sign America PAC’s petition and surprised a member of the audience as the first winner.”
Musk, in announcing the giveaway at a Harrisburg rally that same day, said: “We’re going to be awarding a million dollars — randomly — to people who have signed the petition every day from now until the election.”
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Uncomfortably close to the likely truth, as always. I wonder if he has to do anything to cleanse himself after doing one of these, like taking a shower, or burning incense, or vomiting continuously in a bucket for several minutes straight.
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…and of course he uses it to spew lies. Pathetic.
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I mean’t shouldn’t be so close to each other. More than 10% of the results should show up outside the error range of the polls.
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Yeah, they’re trying to set up an argument that it’s just a contract. Money given in exchange for being a spokesperson. But that’s not going to work. They didn’t require people to submit resumes. They didn’t conduct interviews. I doubt if they even looked at people’s social media. They clearly picked the winners at random, and that makes it undeniably an illegal lottery, per Pennsylvania law. Even if what they won was a job as a spokesperson instead of a million dollars directly, that’s still something of value given to someone whose name was picked at random, and that makes it a lottery.
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Counterpoint: Nate Silver. If he still has a job, I’m not sure that any amount of reality is enough to move them.
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Thank you for that.
It seems like a strange legal strategy to claim the winners weren’t picked at random, when the promotion of the giveaway as a random drawing alone is enough to violate PA law, and then if they weren’t picked at random, it just becomes fraud. Unless the whole thing is just to kick it down the road in hopes that Donny wins and makes it go away?
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