The computer spat out “Rafael (Ted)” but NOAA decided that was too on the nose…
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Well, that graphic helped slow my pulse some, so thank you.
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The tantrum Rafael “Ted” Cruz will have over any election the GOP doesn’t win.
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So “stats guru Nate Silver” ((“i knew some real ‘stats gurus’, and you ain’t no statistics guru Nate”)), has now declared that Harris “Has the ‘mo’” (that’d be “momentum” for you physics geeks). Silver has now stated every possible outcome; sometimes declaring it to be his “gut feeling” (as opposed to anything statistical?) and so, look for whatever happens Nate’ll be out there pointing to his closest augury and declaring himself master of “stats” crystal balls everywhere (cf Jeane Dixon effect again) -sigh-
too much text, sorry. (blame Daily Beast)
Stats Guru Nate Silver Reveals Which Candidate Has Momentum in Final Push
LAST CALL Sean Craig Published 11.04.24 12:24PM EST
Nate Silver said the campaign is closing with the winds at the sails of Vice President Kamala Harris. Last month, the statistician and blogger wrote a New York Times op-ed saying the race was essentially a toss-up, but his “gut” feeling was that former president Donald Trump will win the election. In an appearance on Crooked Media’s What a Day podcast, he stood by his assessment that Harris has a “50/50 shot.” “But we’re going into the last week where if any candidate has the momentum it’s Harris and not Trump,” he added. “In the New York Times polls, people who have decided in the past week, they go for eight points by Harris.” Silver noted last minute voters breaking for Harris could be thanks to Trump’s toxic Madison Square Garden rally, where a racist comedian insulted Puerto Rico, Hulk Hogan spit at the mention of Harris’ name, a sanitation worker called her the “Antichrist,” and Tucker Carlson mocked her race—something so crazy, even by Trump standards, not even the Oracle of Des Moines Ann Selzer could have predicted it.
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Yep, same kind of mealy mouthed, fat talking horse puckey he’s been spewing for a long time now. Since he spews it confidently, while in effect supporting the horse race narrative, he gets tons of interviews, and probably lecture appearances too. Grade A (as in Asshole) grifter, that one.
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Hey… nate…
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His gut has permanent travelers diarrhea.
My gut is telling me it’s a Harris win - but I don’t claim any prognostication talent. Just a ton or nervousness and fear.
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I wonder if it wasn’t sort of the other way round -
“Invest x amount of thousands with me and I’ll throw in an underage incentive” type of thing.
Either way, yuk.
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Prices in Canada may be higher.
That’s a real You eat pieces of shit for breakfast? kind of moment.
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Warning: probably won’t make you feel better about the election, but has some good things to remember.
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<throwing shit at a wall.gif>
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…the FCC’s Equal Time rule…
My first thought was, “how quaint!” 
Then, “is that a thing again? Didn’t it go away in the '80s?”
(I was thinking of the Fairness Doctrine)
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It’d help if people used some other term, – such as impending motion, – for expected movement, which polls and polling aggregates haven’t yet caught up with.
Anyway, the polls should [shouldn’t] be this close to each other. If they had perfect methods and perfect weighting, 10% [of the results] should be outside the error range, and since they don’t have such things, a lot more should.
Edited for type and clarity.
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I’m glad you didn’t bother to find that gif!
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ETA
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I wasn’t even going to look!
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I’m not sure I agree. If Harris is actually up by double-digits, then it would be relieving a lot of anxiety right now. Accurate polls would be much, much better than what we have. And since what we have is shit, it should be public knowledge that it’s shit instead of pretending that it’s accurate. It would also create urgency around improving polling methods to make them more accurate instead of using old methods that don’t work anymore. Right now, pollsters have no motivation to radically change their approach because they are getting away with pretending that the status quo is ok. It’s not.
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It also never made sense that people who are in the country illegally would WANT to risk arrest and deportation to cast a single vote even if they could find a way to do so. Heck, it’s often an uphill battle to get American citizens to make the effort to vote.
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It’s like how spiders like to climb into your mouth when you’re sleeping. They don’t actually have their own lives to worry about, they simply exist to torment the Good People™ of the world. 
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