Weren’t they in one of the “Star Wars” films? (sorry, but the culture…and I’d think it would be “Royal”.)
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What kills me is all of the stuff that the current POTUS dismantled two years ago. Christ on a crutch and KEE-rye-men-NEE, as the saying goes.
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sounds reasonable?
I suppose not.
It sounds like Biden and Sanders have unrealistic expectations of the armed services, mitigated only by the dawning realization that the soldier may have unrealistic expectations of the carceral state.
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Today, I took data from the USA Total Deaths plot from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and used a logarithmic regression to fit to the Days vs. Number of Deaths data. For this to work, I had to use Number of Deaths as the x variable and Days as the y variable. The regression (LibreOffice Calc) gave the following equation, Eq. 1:
x = -9.111 + 5.632 * ln(y)
Note that r² = 0.992.
I didn’t use an exponential regression because Calc doesn’t have one, and I’m not sure it’s a valid way to do it. I had to omit days that had 0 or 1 death; because ln(0) is minus infinity, and for some reason ln(1) = 0 skewed the equation in ways I don’t understand.
Anyway I used Wolfram Alpha to invert Eq. 1 to an exponential in terms of x (Eq. 2):
y = 5.0412 * exp(0.1775*x)
Plotting this shows the regression line fits pretty well:
I plotted this on a log-linear plot:
then used Eq. 2 to project into the future. I know it will not follow exactly this curve, but it’s a place to start thinking.
In only two weeks, I project a thousand deaths in the US. Of course at some point the number of deaths will plateau at a constant value, but when?
1000? 100000? 10 million?
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Pretty well tracks with this:
It’s really frustrating because I work with the underlying sampling models that a lot of epidemiology people are using to infer how much unseen transmission there currently is. Birth-death serially sampling models. I apply them in a really different context (the fossil record), but the math is the same. And my colleagues are fucking sitting here like “Oh, we can’t know how bad this will be, blah, blah blah” and it’s like … yeah, we can get a pretty good idea, and we have a pretty good idea when the peak of the epidemic will be. We can more than start planning for this.
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Journal of the Corona Year
3/17
Today was my eye examination. It made me worry. We keep being warned against touching our faces, and that is what a visit to an eye doctor is all about. I wan’t sure if by keeping the appointment I would be selfishly endangering their lives or if they would be endangering mine. Was worrying giving me my headache or was it a virus?
I read a post a few days ago in this topic regarding the importance of keeping a dentist appointment. So I kept that in mind and went.
There were two young guys working there when I arrived: one was the optometrist and the other completed orders behind the counter. They were very friendly. I used multiple doses of Purell to show my good intentions.
Everything seemed right in the store. Like Holly Golightly surrounded by the smell of silver and alligator wallets. It was easy to forget the pandemic going on outside, until you realized we were the inly three people in the store.
I got a big project finished yesterday and another one today. There is no way I could have gotten that much done by working remotely on a laptop. There are two more big projects that are hold-overs from last week’s chaos. I hope I can get through them tomorrow.
A colleague arrived in the afternoon. He seemed surprised to see me. I was surprised to see him — he usually seemed so sensible. He hoped to stay just a little while, but worked for about three hours on as much as he could. As he was leaving around 5:30 he mentioned that the mayor was considering a mandatory shelter in place.
I don’t know what that means exactly, but just to be sure I went to the grocery store when I got home around 7:30. And now the grocery stores were really empty. I found most of what I was looking for, including three quart-bottles of whole milk for my freezer. I can’t have black coffee. You can freeze milk if you know how to do it. I have spent winters in Minnesota.
After work I can sit at my iPad and it all doesn’t seem real. I can’t remember what day it is.
I received a company-wide email at 8:35. A second employee in the Lower Manhattan office has tested positive for COVID-19. Not me this time.
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How does one freeze milk properly?
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Just throw it up there in the carton. My aunt does it all the time.
Well, my business continues to do well. My webinars on Yoga teachers getting online with Zoom are drawing exactly the people I need for my business. I also learned through a total freak accident that Google and EventBrite are in love. My webinars I promote on there are the top ranked google search for my keywords.
Meantime, gonna go up Friday to pick up my kiddo. Her college is encouraging everyone to go home. She is in her Senior semester and it’s heartbreaking to have her collage year end this way.
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So how many groceries to get? It’s just me. I got some beans, rice, eggs and a few other things like chicken stock. Should I lay in more supplies?
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When I went to the store the other day, I basically just focused on getting food that (combined with what was already on-hand) would last a week or two (and possibly stretch further), with variety in mind, and working around what wasn’t in the store. Aimed towards shelf-stable or frozen, so fresher food could be eaten as available.
My general thought was that the supply chain should hold together, but between the panic buys and other disruption it’s going to make for uncertainty about what’s available over the next few weeks and might need some creativity to keep the diet from driving anyone crazy. Also, trying not to be part of the problem and limit possible exposure over the next few weeks (and, trying not to contribute too much to the panic-buying as well).
I could be entirely wrong, of course, and it also depends on how fragile your specific area is. For me, in the very worst case, I do have a few MREs tucked away. But a lot would need to go wrong here before something like that is needed…
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The public libraries around here all agreed to close and keep paying their employees, so that’s my spouse taken care of. Kind of a load off my mind since her immune system is compromised and she’s had bad pneumonia in the past.
Meanwhile, at my company they declared “business as usual.” Maybe finally having some official statement from management will ease the daily anxiety attacks, maybe it won’t. The risk is honestly pretty low, because I have the sort of job where any face to face communication is more likely a distraction than not so we minimize that anyway. But I’m off to the ghost town that is our office building and plaza, so I can plant my ass in a company-owned chair in a company-owned cubicle, put on my headphones, and do the work I could easily do from home.
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Among other more practical things, I bought a can of bacon flavored Spam. I’ve never had it and I might hate it, but if all else fails it might help break the monotony.
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My state has enacted emergency measures that are a major boon for all the precariat:
It’s like someone actually listened. Someone up there has some concept of what life is like for normal people, and just how bad things could get if that were to break down. That makes me really happy.
Meanwhile, things have gotten a bit weird.
My wife’s work still refuses to close, though their big industry-wide group is now strongly suggesting that they all do so. I hope they do. A significant number of their customers are elderly and in high-risk groups, and they deal with the general public. This morning, she finally decided to tell them no, she’s not going in, and I fully support that. If they don’t like it, she’ll get unemployment until this blows over and then get hired at one of their competitors.
A family friend stopped by. No real worries there, but I didn’t want to get too close. They work with the public.
I walked to the store. There was only one other customer there at the time, and we gave each other plenty of room. The cashier, who’s usually friendly, had gloves on and looked like he really didn’t want to be there and wished I wasn’t there either. At least they were well-stocked.
I’ve been working from home for years, and never had a problem with it. My company is very WFH-positive, we have the tools and procedures in place, and know how to use them. But this is a strain even on that. Some coworkers are dealing with having kids at home because of school closings, having to deal with uncertainty with spouse’s jobs, etc. And that’s with no one even sick or anything. And everyone’s keyed up and distracted by the news. I can’t imagine how bad it is for the companies and employees that are just trying work from home for the first time ever, and aren’t already used to it.
So far, there’s plenty of love and support. Things are awkward and uncertain, but everyone I know seems to be dealing with it ok.
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You’d probably want to take some out before freezing. Water expands when frozen, so would milk.
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You might want to have some comfort foods and treats, too, if you don’t already.
My thinking is that the near term future is likely to be emotionally taxing. If I end up in a fetal position, despairing for the world (something I find myself doing periodically in the best of times) I’m going to want some chocolate.
Also, it’s possible to freeze eggs, but you’ll want to beat them first, and freeze in egg increments. I have an ice cube tray that fits half an egg per cube, so I will be able to measure later.
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This for cow’s milk. I tried this so I know it works. You can always try it with a small sample.
Assuming your milk is in plastic bottles or bags. If it’s in glass, put it in plastic, the glass will break.
Pour off about a fifth to allow expansion when it freezes. Put it in the fridge and get it as cold as possible. Then into the freezer and let it freeze solid. It will look yellowish and ugly but don’t worry.
When you’re ready, take it out of the freezer and put it in the fridge or cold water to melt. Depending on how cold your freezer and fridge are, it may take a day or more to melt completely.
Once it’s melted, shake vigorously and use. It will be a little yellower than normal
It doesn’t taste exactly like fresh, but it’s infinitely better than reconstituted dried milk or canned evaporated milk. My kids will drink it. We’re not having a shortage here but it could happen, so it’s good to know there are ways to stretch the expiry date.
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