Bayesian analysis is mathematical.
I know.
But it generally doesn’t involve what I’d think of as a “proof”. And my gut is decidedly non-mathematical. 
Related:
High quality Twitter snark:
I’m no fan of Tito, but this is an interesting thread anyway:
Thread:
I get rather annoyed at things like the accounts of how RBG was chummy with Scalia outside the courtroom. That’s fine if you view law and politics as a sport; fierce competitors on the field, share a beer after the game.
ok.
the fantasy of liberalism is that individuals act according to their individual reasoning, and not in deference to existing power relations. Political scientists have noted that the supreme court is closer to this ideal than legislatures.
I’m sorry that Scalia acted against GLBT individuals. In that sense, he was a very real menace.
But, that very real menace had a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court, In light of this stubborn fact, RBG believed that engagement was the better political strategy.
Current observations suggest that she was mistaken. Accepting the need for compromise is one thing; getting chummy with evil is entirely different.
Social cues determine the boundaries of acceptable discourse; by treating Scalia as acceptable and reasonable, you shift the Overton Window in his direction. You don’t have to bring wine and cake to a ceasefire negotiation.
Scalia did not just act against LGBT people. He also acted against everyone who wasn’t a rich white male Republican, and worked to accelerate the destruction of American democracy. Yes, you can pull out some individual decisions that are defensible in isolation, but his overall impact was clear.
The USSC, despite its pretensions of legal reasoning, has always been a political institution. Politics is always, ultimately, about power [1].
[1] Insert usual caveats here about IMO, YMMV, etc. etc. Getting a bit cranky with the world, and it affects my language.
Nine Emmys for the sheetcaking fools who invited Trump to host their show.
Both blunt and pointed:
The reason that I’m hammering the history of destructive American foreign and domestic policy a bit at the moment is because of this:
The Trumpists are going to be invoking jingoism, holding the symbols of state and claiming to defend the Constitution. The left will be scruffy, in the streets and openly calling for revolution.
The hyper-patriotism and American Exceptionalism that saturates US culture is actively harmful to the left. It needs to be cracked, ASAP.
i have no disagreement with the brute facts the gun show lawyer is pointing out. i disagree with his apparent glee at saying it but you’d have to been asleep the past 10 years to miss the way the nra ignores the legally carrying black men who’ve died at the hands of the police.